Last modified: 2012-09-12
Abstract
Navigation in the water areas covered with ice in many cases become complicated in connection with ice conditions decline. It can be connected with compression of ices, visibility decline, wind strengthening, fall of temperature and other reasons. In this case, the person (the navigator, the ship-owner) which makes the decision on a departure of vessel from port or the further movement of a cargo vessel is required to choose one of two variants of the decision. The first variant is the termination of traffic before improvement of ice conditions to comprehensible level. The second variant is departure from port (or continuation of traffic) and movement on a route by self-navigation or with use of icebreaking assistance (ice pilotage).Each of variants differs with expenses (besides cost of ice pilotage) as it is connected with certain risks of the emergency incidents which realization is interfaced to economic losses, which in each of considered variants will be various.The methodology of comparison of risks is necessary for acceptance of the decision for the purpose of a choice of an optimum variant.
In the report, one of approaches to the decision of the given problem is considered: use of criterion of comparison of risks. That allows considering probabilities of realization of various scenarios of ice conditions, probability of emergency incidents, economic losses because of idle demurrage or repairing work after failure, and readiness of the operator to run risks for acceleration of delivery being onboard cargo.